Success Formula -- a Subject of Debate 2024
CraigBaugher reply :
The Lindners created it, I assigned value to it.
PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS FORMULA
1. DEPTH 43%: The MOST CRITAL factor: To catch a fish your lure MUST be at the right depth. Probability 43% -- Meaning if this is the only factor you get right, you have a 43% chance of catching a fish.
2. SPEED 25%: The 2nd MOST CRITICAL factor: To trigger a strike your lure needs to be moving at the SPEED the fish want at that moment. So if you have the right speed you have a 25% chance of catching a fish. Get 1 & 2 right, you have a 68% of catching a fish.
3. SIZE 15%: To trigger a strike with a particular lure, the size MUST be right. For a crankbait that might be one size, for a tubebait another, a worm another. But whatever the lure is to be representing, it needs to match the hatch, less the water is dirty, than it needs to be bigger. Get it right 15%, it 2 & 3 you have 40% , Get 1 & 3 you have a 58%, and if you get 1, 2, & 3 right, you have a 83% chance of catching a fish.
4. SOUND/ACTION 12%: The Lindners seperate these two, but I says you cannot, because Action which involves the movement (wiggle, wobble, shake) that motion creates sound. Get the right sound 12%, 3 & 4 = 27%, 4 & 2=37%, 1, 2, 3, & 4 = 95% chance.
5. COLOR 3%: I weigh color low, because I believe it only comes into play 3% of the time. As long as you are using a color that can be seen for the conditions (natural in clear, bright in muddy, black & white anytime), your good, and I will prove it anytime anybody can fish with me. I'll catch a fish on pink, throw yelllow catch fish, green, catch fish. Color doesn't matter 97%
6. SMELL 1.5%: I personally can't think of a time it matters, but for the benefit of the doubt.
7. TASTE 0.5%: Again, if a fish can taste it, its on my hook anyways.
OK, that is my formula. You don't have to agree with, but you do need to justify your reasoning if you would change the weighting scale. So, do you agree or what is your formula?
Gatorbassman reply :
It looks great Craig. Although it may not belong in this list one very important thing any time is confidence. Without it fishing is tough.
KU_Bassmaster. reply :
Interesting way of looking at it. I would have never thought to look at it that way. I agree with it all pretty much. IMO I would switch 3 and 4, but the values have you assigned are almost equal. I guess I kind of think as speed and sound/action as one.
I also wholeheartedly agree with your color value. IMO people but waayyyyy to much emphasis on color. Over the past two years I have basically only carried two soft plastic colors .... green and black. I have seen no decrease in size or numbers.
CraigBaugher reply :
QuoteIt looks great Craig. Although it may not belong in this list one very important thing any time is confidence. Without it fishing is tough.
A MAN AFTER MY OWN HEART! Teasing!!!
I say confidence RULES! 30/70 skill/confidence
sirmo reply :
Way to much un-certainty and randomness going on in nature to slap labeled percentages on it. I think...
Cool way of looking at it though, thats pretty much how most fisheman, including myself, prioritize things.
CraigBaugher reply :
QuoteInteresting way of looking at it. I would have never thought to look at it that way. I agree with it all pretty much. IMO I would switch 3 and 4, but the values have you assigned are almost equal. I guess I kind of think as speed and sound/action as one.I also wholeheartedly agree with your color value. IMO people but waayyyyy to much emphasis on color. Over the past two years I have basically only carried two soft plastic colors .... green and black. I have seen no decrease in size or numbers.
I agree! I feel action/sound in often more important. That is way the weight is right close.
Catt reply :
Dude you're over complicating a simple sport by trying to over analyze it
Here my FORMULA FOR SUCCESS
Make an educated guess based pasted experiences as to where, when, and with what
If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you always got
Long Mike reply :
Craig, thanks for your post. I haven't done the math, but I think you just narrowed down a bass fisherman's choices to just less than an infinite number of combinations. Of course I realize that you were speaking in generic terms, but I do not understand how the information provided in your post will put one bass in my boat. Perhaps you might want to expand on each of your topics.
Mike
Randall reply :
Anytime I see subjects or articles like this in a book, magazine etc. I try not to even read it. It will just cloud my mind with information that I am better off without. I did read your post and admire the thought that went into it but don't think I should think about fishing this way to be better at it or gain a better understanding of catching fish. I choose to keep it simple because at different time most of those things are important or most important. Sometimes those things including depth, which was most important, matters very little. Breaking things down like this and giving them numerical values causes over thinking simple things (at least to me) and what I call knowledge constipation. Knowledge constipation is having so much #?&% in your head that you can't get anything useful out of your head to use to catch fish. A success formula that causes this much thought will cause me a lack of success.
I personally take all the information I have learned through years of fishing and make everything as simple as possible. That way my thoughts and decisions are clear and I have more confidence in the decisions I make since they were easier and quicker to make based on my simple thought process.
Catt reply :
That is a lot of interesting information without a lot of wisdom
#1: location with out a doubt is the number one key under which depth falls
#2: weather; no explanation required
#3: time of the day, ever sit on a piece of structure for a couple hours catching nothing then in the next fifteen minutes load the boat and then nothing again.
Items 2 through 7 are ever changing as to which order and percentage they will fall
bassnleo reply :
Dunno bout the formula, agree with some aspects, on the fence about others.
The one thing I do agree totally with is where color falls. I'm like KUBassmaster, I have found that I can get it done with mostly green or black colors no matter the water color.
JT Bagwell reply :
Very interesting topic.
Where were the actual percentages derived?
I very much agree with you on the color factor (or lack thereof).
I take my family fishing at a private club a lot and my brother inlaw
and father inlaw always want the same color Senko I am using. I had
to prove it to them that color wasn't really an issue. I would throw pink,
purple, blue, black, etc and the fish would eat all of them.
JT Bagwell
guest reply :
Hey RW that link leads to a page from the forums that explained that artilce doesn't exisit or has been moved!!!!
CJ reply :
Sirmo makes a good point.You can't label factors with percentages because mother nature is a b*%#h.I do agree with depth being the #1 factor.Still yet,year around fish will hold at many different depths.
dink reply :
Gotta side with Catt. Location trumps ALL other factors. If the fish are not there, the entire equation or analysis isn't worth the paper it is written on.
Siebert Outdoors reply :
I would go along with that list. IMO the first 3 should have higher percentage though. You can have all the confidence in the world but if those 3 lack especially #1 your fishing dead water.
One thing I would do is make depth/location #1 Similiar I guess but 10 ft in the back of a cove is different area as 10 ft in a main lake pt.
BucketmouthAngler13 reply :
Thats a intresting way of looking at things... And I'm sure most of it is correct. But with all due respect I think that sometimes there is such a thing as thinking too much, atleast for me.
"Watson, a man's brain is like a attic. Put alot of stuff in there, and there isn't room for anything else."
Sir Arthur Doyle speaks for me in this matter. I dont think what, where, how, and when I'm going to fish before I get there. I look at a given situation and take structure, time of day and year, water temp, light condition into consideration and try on a lure I think will work best. IMHO the best time to think what to do is when your doing it. "Dont cross bridges intill you get to them."
JMHO 
Matt
CraigBaugher reply :
I should have reworded it, because this is the P in the formula of L + P + T or Location + Presentation + Time/Territory = Pattern. So it should be "Success Presentation Formula"
Bluecraw reply :
Interesting way to look at it. I think I would give a little more weight to the taste and smell. It's been proven that a bass will keep the bait in her mouth significantly longer if she can taste and/or smell it. I spray every plastic I throw in the water....it may or may not "attract" them, but when she inhales the bait, you have more time to hook her before she spits it out. :
senile1 reply :
QuoteI would go along with that list. IMO the first 3 should have higher percentage though. You can have all the confidence in the world but if those 3 lack especially #1 your fishing dead water.One thing I would do is make depth/location #1 Similiar I guess but 10 ft in the back of a cove is different area as 10 ft in a main lake pt.
Like GMAN, I would give more weight to depth/location. I would also give slightly more weight to taste and smell but not much. This is an interesting topic. I agree with some of the other posters regarding the possibility of analyzing this too much, but it is good to keep in mind each of these factors when you are fishing. (Especially the most important ones.)
FIN-S-R reply :
In a post I placed a little while back (NOT FOR THE WEAK OF MIND PART II) I had included a chart which I consider my probability calculator or guide. The first step in using the guide was to choose a seasonal pattern that was most likely to be in effect at the time you wish to persue the green or brown fish. I wrestled with the organization of this system considering what would be the largest defining factor for increasing an anglers probability for exposing his lure or bait to a fish. In reviewing my notes and recording the outcomes of many tourneys I realized that to realize your best probability for success, location was the single most influencial factor. It is simple reasoning that says "If you are in an area with fish you have a better chance of catching one than if your chunking at sterile water." This idea is fundamentally sound independent of depth, are here is why. Take for instance a pre-spawn/ spawn pattern. You would be working 2ndary points back to flats in order to find the largest concentration of catchable fish. You may pick up some on the points, and some in the spawning grounds, but depth would be an influencing factor on the same magnitude as available cover and structure (spawning sites/ holding sites/ etc.). The same idea holds true for post spawn, and fall. Depth does become more important during summer and winter, but the rule of mother nature's entropy dictates that there will be catchable fish at various depths in a particular area considering available habitat and food. That is not to discount the FACT that there will be fish any place there is water that will support life, so the importance of location is relative to food sources with the exception of spawn. This idea also bleeds over into your next probability factor: SPEED. In my analysis of the relative success of various lures (LIVE BAIT DOES NOT HAVE A VARIABLE SPEED IN GENERAL) composed of various speeds and reaction mechanisms, I realized that SPEED is just a part of a presentaions reaction level. Reaction level is made up of 3 components that are in my mind inseparable: Sound/Sight/Speed. Color is also a factor in reaction level, but is more of the fine tuned end of it and is more region or location dictated. A bass feeds by sight and sound, and if it can overcome the speed at which a lure is presented, it will notice then catch the lure. At any 1 point in time there is a range of sight, sound and speed combinations which will promt a strike at any number of depths, so its more the correct combination of the 3 factors than only the exact level of 1 which will allow for hookin up. Now I didnt assign values to the variables as a measurement of statistical probability in the chart I constructed, but in making the chart I did formulate an importance based on values which were derived from counting the numbers of fish taken from certian areas at certian times on certain lures. The figures were further explored by categorizing numbers of catches according to the calculated reaction values for various lures (color independant) that caught the fish. Then I reworked the numbers based on general fish size. Much of the data was dependent on people telling the truth, and ASSUMING that I got the reaction levels of certain lures ballparked correctly. I think I probably did due to the fact that the differences between the numbers and size calculatoins suggested little difference in areas or reaction levels, but there was a depth component that showed some difference though it was not significant statistically speaking.
Overall, I CALCULATED that location was approximately 75% of the picture, and reaction level was about 15% of the picture in most cases, with the exception of a hard spawn where as reaction level and location split the bulk of the probability at 45% and 45%.
Weather patterns can be broken into 2 categories, those that offer rising barometer with bright conditions (most often these two occur simutaneously), and dropping barometer with low light conditions (most often these two occur simutaneously). There are exceptions to these two categories, and everything in between them, but they are two benchmarks that serve as extremes and can be used to gauge values in between. This factor is worth 10% almost without fail...except during spawn where it many times is either everybodys game, or anybodies game.
Color: We have discussd color on this forum enough to probably agree that there are a few colors that are mainstays. There will always be a regional or local influencing factor, but the science of light absorbsion and penetration dictates that in reality a generic set of colors are MOST VISIBLE...maybe not best, but most visible.
NOTE: I do not claim to have discovered the magic set of rules that will always work, just figured out how I can figure out a good place to start
Anyway, Its quittin time and I gotta go get ready for a tourney. Oh yeah. Ill include some pics of what my "Probability SYSTEM" has done for me over the past few outings.
TravisLovett reply :
Well to me I think every bass is different. Theres no way your going to be able to make a formula to success that will always work. Dont get me wrong, all of the aspects are very important, its just that its near impossible to put a value of importance on it. Bass have different personalities, they are all going to respond to different things differently.
CraigBaugher reply :
Quote
Seth is that you
justfishin reply :
OK, I have been patient but, here is my two cents. Leave your slide rules, hypothesis's, calculators, the position of the sun and moon charts, crystal balls, underwater camera's, laptops with formulas and equations software at home. As the saying goes " Just shut up and fish ". Ghesssssssshhhh, quit making it all so complicated and lets just fish. Its not that hard.
cart7t reply :
Here's my formula
Tie on lures before leaving that I've determined will probably give me my best chance for success due to time of year and potential water temps for that time of year along with probable location of bass for that particular time. I'll have at least a dozen rods pre-rigged.
Tow boat to the lake and launch it.
Immediately determine if the water conditions are what I deduced, if they are, make way to high percentage spots for that time of year and begin the process of casting to determine whether I was right. If the conditions are different, I'll make adjustments to my lures, locations and presentations.
I honestly don't think about percentages of any of the above, in fact, when I'm out fishing I try to avoid thinking about any type of math at all.
If all else fails, slop fish.
Jerkbate reply :
QuoteDude you're over complicating a simple sport by trying to over analyze itHere my FORMULA FOR SUCCESS
Make an educated guess based pasted experiences as to where, when, and with what
If you do what you've always done, you'll get what you always got
I agree.
justfishin reply :
Can I ask you a honest question Mr. Baugher? How did you come to the conclusion of your specific percentage values in each category?
Dan: reply :
QuoteOK, I have been patient but, here is my two cents. Leave your slide rules, hypothesis's, calculators, the position of the sun and moon charts, crystal balls, underwater camera's, laptops with formulas and equations software at home. As the saying goes " Just shut up and fish ". Ghesssssssshhhh, quit making it all so complicated and lets just fish. Its not that hard.
Well said.
BassChaser57 reply :
If you develop a plan based on scientific fact you will have a much better chance of putting bass in the boat. Sure you might get lucky and beat KVD on a given day, but he will win in the long run because he and other pros will take the scientific approach. I would rather be smart and good over lucky every day!!!
8-)
hi_steel_basser reply :
You left gut instinct off of your list. That is the best tool a fisherman has. I will never forget the day I thought I needed to fish one particular bank that was tough to get to with a white spinnerbait. Well, I couldn't find the trail to it when I got to that pond that morning. So I proceeded to throw my spinnerbait around the easy side of the lake, along with several other lures. About two hours in, I see a guy on the other side of the pond. He proceeds to catch 4-5 fish in the next hour, all caught on a white spinnerbait. The biggest was about 8 lbs. IMO, gut instinct is the key to catching fish.
spiritgide reply :
Most of us are sort of at a disadvantage, as we don't live where bass do. I started bass fishing in 1958, when my folks bought a marina. 17 years later I was teaching scuba diving, and spending a lot of time underwater at beaver lake arkansas... And I made it a point to learn all I could about the habits of bass; things I couldn't learn from the surface. Some of that applies to how I fish now.
Location is first, of course- as your sonar tells you, 95% of the lake has perhaps 2% of the fish... the rest are gathered at the current choice of cover. If you aren't where they are at, you're not fishing, you're on a boat ride. By the way, I found that two locations that seem equal with similar cover, positioning and depth can have widely different appeal to bass as a hang-out. Never figured that one out. I learned that some such spots are always hot, and some are not.
Depth- At any place in the lake, the bass are found within a range that typically covers only about 5 feet or so. How deep depends on the time of year and time of day. Due to this, I agree that depth matters a lot; I don't think bass are inclined to leave this comfort zone. Why are they there? Temperature appears to be the biggest reason; I think oxygen content in the water is the next. I didn't have high quality equipment to test O2 levels, but it appeared to make a difference. I also noticed that a given temperature didn't always occur at the same depth point is a lake- inflow could make a creek cove a bit warmer or cooler, and fish moved accordingly.
Lure speed has a lot to do with it, and is definitely related to temperature. Seems logical; cold-blooded systems work slower when cold. In colder water, you need to slow down to a rate they are willing to pursue. I also think that bait size is an issue; colder fish prefer smaller baits.
You can find cover and fish with the sonar. You can approximate the lure speed and experiment up or down until you get action. These require some knowledge, but not high skills.
Aside from those, I think that the ability of the angler to chose the right bait for the situation and present his bait in the most realistic way is the biggest variable, and a critical one. That's the skill issue; each angler will be different. I think you are better off with a lure that's not ideal but you really know how to use well, than one that is technically right but you aren't skilled with. The tougher the bite- the more critical the presentation. The more baits you are really skilled with, the better the odds of success.
FIN-S-R reply :
QuoteQuoteSeth is that you
Nope not seth.
All of you fellows that are commenting on making it too complicated are CORRECT. When im on the water, despite the large number of hours I have put into concocting my personal "system" I rarely if ever take the paper to the lake. I review the concepts and "rules" I have collected a couple of days or maybe even weeks before I hit the lake. I make a plan and as 1 guy mentioned pre-rig to the tune of about 10 rigs, then I go fishing. If I get stumped, I move my efforts left or right of central idea i planned for. This weekend it took me two days to catch 1 fish on largely unexplored cold slightly murkey water. So I essentially made the wrong call on some variables. this info will go into my log, and the new perspective concerning these variables will be calculated into my "system" to hopefully make it better. Bottum line: I have tried to come up with a good place to start. Anything that happens after that first cast is anybodys game.
.ghoti. reply :
A very interesting take on one of the Lindner boy's major contributions to our favorite pasttime. The only point I'd really disagree with is taste. As a guy who primarily fishes soft plastics, I'd argue that taste is a major factor. A bass can spit out a bait that doesn't taste ok much faster than you can set the hook. If you don't believe that, try squirting a little Off, or the bug juice of your choice, on your baits, and see how many fish you catch. I use a scent basically as a cover up, to help conceal any scents or flavors I may have added to the bait. I almost always have a thermos of coffee, a sandwich or two, and a couple of fine cigars along for the trip. I seriously doubt that bass find tobacco, coffee, or mustard to be flavorful. Maybe they do, but I doubt it. So, I try to cover it up. I've proved, at least to my own satisfaction, that a cover scent will improve my catch rate.
Good topic, and an interesting analysis.
Cheers,
GK
Bankbeater reply :
One of the reasons I go fishing is so I won't have to think about stuff like this.
Dan: reply :
QuoteOne of the reasons I go fishing is so I won't have to think about stuff like this.
same here. I just try different things until I find things that work, then I remember thost things and replicate them.
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